Consulting
Expansion Planning and Operation Simulation
Customized support to meet clients' specific needs, addressing strategic and technical issues in the energy sector.
About
Based on proprietary or third-party computational models, these works aim to support the decision-making of public and private agents through technical simulations and market projections. The analyses range from the integrated expansion of generation and transmission to the hourly simulation of the operation of hydro-thermal-renewable systems, calculating energy prices and the dispatch perspective of generators.
What we do
Planning and integrated expansion of electric power generation and transmission supply
Simulations to determine the optimal expansion of the system, considering the demand profile and growth, the physical characteristics of the generators, commercial aspects, and meeting the requirements for supply security.
Growth of distributed generation
Projection of the growth of installed capacity of solar distributed generation, evaluation of the economic attractiveness of DG from the consumer’s point of view, and economic-financial analysis of DG projects for investors, considering the geographical specificities of each project and the current regulation.
Operation simulation and spot price calculation
Simulations in hourly steps of the electric system’s operation, with individualized representation of the generating plants and considering scenarios to represent uncertainties (hydrology and non-dispatchable renewable production), in addition to the operator’s risk aversion metrics (VminOp, CVaR, among others). The simulations can also include factors such as the non-convergence of inflows to the historical average and the loss of productivity of hydroelectric plants. The complete transmission network can also be represented. As a result, the Marginal Operating Cost (CMO), the individualized generation of the generators, and the Settlement Price of Differences (PLD) for all submarkets of the National Interconnected System (SIN) are obtained. Based on these values, it is possible to analyze the trading risk in different submarkets and with different production profiles.
Captured price of non-dispatchable renewable generation
Captured prices are a financial metric for the settlement of renewable generation at the PLD. The difference between the captured prices and the hourly PLD is an approximation of the value of the financial risk of a flat contract (constant energy delivery throughout all hours of the year) for a renewable generator. Thus, it is important to have a perspective on how the captured price—the “renewable profile risk”—should evolve as the system expands and the PLD profile changes over the years.
Calculation and Review of Physical Guarantee calculations
The Physical Guarantee of generators represents the maximum amount of energy they can sell under contract. For hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants, this amount is calculated using official system dispatch optimization models, based on the energy contribution of these assets in the simulation. The analysis of this value is of fundamental importance for the business strategy of the generation agents.
Energy Reallocation Mechanism (MRE) and Generation Scaling Factor (GSF)
The MRE is a system created so that hydroelectric generators share production risks resulting from hydrological conditions or dispatch decisions by the National Electric System Operator. It serves to collectively redistribute the energy generated among the participating agents, regardless of the individual production of each plant, ensuring more stability and financial predictability. The calculation of the GSF is essential in this process, as it indicates how much the collectively generated energy differs from the contracted physical guarantee—being crucial for defining financial adjustments between generators and the market.
Expected thermoelectric dispatch
Simulations of thermoelectric generator dispatch, considering their power characteristics, fuel cost, unit commitment constraints, and geographical location to estimate the probability of activation, number of activations, and number of hours on and off over a defined time horizon.
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